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pRisk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.ppBased on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.ppThis book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. pul p p liComplete with international examples to illustrate ideas and conceptsli p p liIntegrates risk management and resilience based thinking li p p liSuitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security. li ul

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans | Aven Terje | Twarda

piExtreme Solar Particle Storms The hostile Suni provides a consolidated review of our current understanding of extreme solar events, or black swans, that leave our technological society vulnerable. Written by experts at the forefront of the growing field of solar storms, this book will be of interest to students and researchers, as well as those curious about the threat that our Sun poses to the modern world.p

Extreme Solar Particle Storms | Miyake Fusa | Twarda

This book explores the potential impact of artificial intelligence AI and intelligent robots on individuals, organizations and society, specifically examining the impact on jobs and workplaces in the future. It provides an understanding of how we can adapt to changes that appear like flocks of black swans.

Robots, Automation and the Innovation Economy | Johannessen Jon | Arild | Twarda | Twarda

This book mixes history on the ancient world with investment ideas for traders involved in financial markets today. It goes through ideas such as measuring risk, whether investors should try to outperform the market, Black Swans and ways of creating appropriate investment targets. It will appeal to professional traders and retail investors.

Trading Thalesians | Amen S. | Twarda

biThe Black Swan iis a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are iFooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, iand iThe Bed of Procrustesi.b pA black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics It is unpredictable it carries a massive impact and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan so was 911. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. pWhy do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on gener

The Black Swan | Taleb Nassim Nicholas | Twarda

pJust add water and it's like magic! A fun and mess-free! painting activity book for kids ages 3-6, iEasy and Fun Paint Magic with Water Fairies and Friendsi features 12 whimsical and mystical line art designs of beautiful fairies, from fairy godmothers and ballerina bunnies to unicorns, mermaids, swans, and more. Using the provided paintbrush, simply wet with water and watch the colors magically appear on each black-and-white illustration as it comes to life! With a stiff cardboard backing to prevent unwanted leaks, parents can rest assured while their children paint and have a blast using water to create stunning works of fairy art! Each page within this paint book comes with perforated edges so finished artwork can be easily removed and put on display.p

Easy and Fun Paint Magic with Water | Clorophyl Editions | Twarda

The stories of six daring, groundbreaking Black ballet dancers leap off the pages of this beautifully illustrated nonfiction picture book. Meet Essie Marie Dorsey, who in 1926 opened one of the first ballet schools for Black students Arthur Mitchell, the first Black dancer with the New York City Ballet Christian Holder, a principal dancer with the Joffrey Ballet choreographer Dwight Rhoden and present-day ballerinas Misty Copeland and Michaela DePrince. With a leap of faith and a love of dance, these Black Swans overcame obstacles and opened doors for all the children who dream of dancing.

Black Swans | Van Der Linde Laurel | Twarda | Twarda

pEscape your busy life with this water garden themed collection. Featuring beautiful realistic ponds, lilies, lotus, irises and other waterplants, and pondlife like ducks, frogs, butterflies, koi carp and swans. Water gardens have long been linked to calmness and tranquility, making them the perfect theme for this stress relieving adult coloring book. This book includes TWO full sets of the 25 artworks, for a total of 50 pages to color in. Page size is 8.5 x 11 inches, letter size, approx. 22 x 28 cm. Images on one side only for easy removal and display. Images are framed within the page, not full bleed. Medium to high detail designs for advanced colorists. Stress and worries fade away as you bring color to black and white, creating your own unique and meaningful artwork.p

Ponds and Flowers | Beautiful Watergardens Coloring Book | Fenech Selina | Paperback | Twarda

p Predominantly white casting in ballet has led many to wonder, Where are all the black swans This book sheds light on female dancers of color, including thirteen primary accounts from African American, Latina, and Asian women in ballet. Topics covered include dance training, casting and color-casting, employment, discrimination, implicit bias, success, and achievement. Dancers discuss in detail the obstacles many dancers of color face during training considerations facing some women of color when seeking employment performance challenges related to company work and the teachers, parents, and community members that paved a way and widened spaces for them. Through the stories and experiences of the women featured here, models of inclusive practices and allyship are shared. The book culminates with a section providing teaching tools to support inclusive learning spaces.p

Skin Colored Pointes | McCarthy | Brown Nyama | Twarda

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management pThe ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions--even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions.p pIn the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation.p pBased on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits p ul li pChallenging basic business assumptions can help identify Black Swans and provide first-mover advantagep li li pDefining the corporate risk appetite and ris

Surviving and Thriving in Unce | Funston Frederick | Twarda | Twarda

Best-selling Paws IV illustrator Shannon Cartwright is back with this charming children's book based on the infectious rhythms of the classic song 'The Twelve Days of Christmas.' Here, the famous 'partridge in a pear tree' becomes a 'black bear in a spruce tree, ' while the fifth day of summer in Alaska yields everything from swans and wood frogs to bald eagles and moose. p Count Alaska's famous wild animals while singing along to the well-known tune of The Twelve Days of Christmas. On each page, more and more animals appear, starting with starting with a single bear in a spruce tree and growing until animals are everywhere, waiting to be discovered and counted.

Alaska's 12 Days of Summer | Chamberlin | Calamar Pat | Paperback | Twarda

Most birders keep lists of the species birds they have seen, but do any keep a list of pub birds, that is birds on pub signs and in pub names This book is about these pub birds, their natural histories, folk-histories and those of the pubs that bear their names, some of the people involved in the story, and the memories that pub birds have evoked over a birding lifetime.This may appear to be a niche aspect of birding but before the advent of modern technology, pubs in 'good birding spots' were often the best place to find out from other birders What's about, preferably over a pint. On the eastern edge of the Yorkshire Dales at the entrance to Wensleydale, are four pubs all named after Black Swans within a five-mile radius. Intriguing, but why there They sparked John Lawton's interest in pub birds and the list that began then spans eleven years, based on a sample of 711 pubs named after birds or things that are 'bird-related'. There are 117 identifiable species of birds, 17 non-specific

Inn Search of Birds | Lawton John | Twarda

bBabitz's talent for the brilliant line, honed to a point, never interferes with her feel for languid pleasures. --iThe New York Times Book Reviewi b pbrA new reissue of Babitz's collection of nine stories that look back on the 1980s and early 1990s--decades of dreams, drink, and glimpses of a changing world. iBlack Swansi further celebrates the phenomenon of Eve Babitz, cementing her reputation as the voice of a generation. pbrWith an introduction by Stephanie Danler, bestselling author of iSweetbitteri. pbrbOn the page, Babitz is pure pleasure--a perpetual-motion machine of no-stakes elation and champagne fizz. --iThe New Yorkeri pbr A true original. --iThe Boston Globei pbrShe's a natural. Or gives every appearance of being one, her writing elevated yet slangy, bright, bouncy, cheerfully hedonistic--L.A. in it purest, most idealized form. --iVanity Fairi pbrBabitz's writing is also like the jacaranda tree in glorious bloom--bewitching an entire city, but all too brief. --iLos Angele

Black Swans | Babitz Eve | Twarda

Financial crises are not unpredictable 'black swans', but an inherent part of capitalism. Only by remaking our financial systems to acknowledge this, can we get out of the mess we're in. Will there be another recession, and if so what shape When will the next bubble occur And what can we do about it This book gives the answers.

Crisis Economics | Roubini Nouriel | Twarda

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