Presidents, Secretaries of State, and Crises in U.S. Foreign Relations : Routledge : 9780367299699 : 0367299690 : 31 May 2024 : This book presents a new approach to analyzing the impact of individuals on U.S. foreign policy and reports the results of this analysis for all post-World War II presidents and secretaries of state, including President Carter and Secretary of State Vance. Its compelling but fundamentally simple theme suggests that it may be unnecessary to adopt traditional models of psychology in order to predict the behavior of foreign-policy decision makers. Earlier studies based on these models are either too judgmental to be predictively useful or too abstract to be relevant to the policy process itself. In contrast, the underlying assumption here is that the information necessary to make accurate predictions is more easily obtainable and understandable than once thought. The methods employed to test Dr. Falkowski's predictive model are easy to understand and to replicate